As I scanned the rapidly moving traffic on my Twitter feed the other day, there was one tweet in particular that caught my eye. It was from the journalist David Carr who was quoting Adam Moss, the editor of New York magazine:

“I think the advertising business is in greater upheaval than the journalism business.”

As an ad guy, I had to dwell on that one for a moment. When I think of industries in crisis due to the onset of the digital age, the newspaper business—which is bleeding customers to free online news sites—pops up neck and neck with travel agents. But after careful consideration, I realized that Moss had a point.

Putting aside for a moment the dismal state of the economy and its impact on ad spending, the upheaval in advertising has been going on for several years. First it was a move away from traditional advertising vehicles (TV, radio, print) to online media (e-mail, banners and Web sites). This set off the first wave of “advertising is dead” claims.

In 2005, with an article titled “Chaos Scenario”, and with a follow-up in 2007 called “Chaos Scenario 2.0”, Ad Age columnist Bob Garfield wrote about “a post-apocalyptic media world substantially devoid of brand advertising as we have long known it.” In 2009, IBM issued a white paper titled “The end of advertising as we know it” that discussed, “the shift in consumer attention from television to other media formats.”

But these commentaries, while pointing out the move from traditional media to digital, only hinted at what’s taking place in 2011. Today, the really big change involves the continuing evolution of social media and consumer review sites.

Some pretty big names in the world of marketing are again saying it’s the end of advertising, but their message has been tweaked a bit. The claim: the ever-rising influence of Facebook, Twitter and now Google Plus, and consumer review sites like Yelp, Angie’s List and Trip Advisor, have made advertising obsolete.

Here are a few notable, recent examples of those who’ve jumped on the 2011-version of “advertising is dead”:

• In May, at ad:tech San Francisco, Antonio Lucio, the global marketing chief of Visa, claimed that “recommendations are the new advertising”.  Lucio and suggested that brands develop “an army of advocates” to promote their products via social media in lieu of traditional media.

• In June, writing in Forbes, the head of global agency Gyro, Rick Segal, extended the “advertising is dead” claim to B-to-B marketing. He stated that: “Death was inevitable when people began carrying their telecommunications and computing power with them.”

• In September, at the interactive OMMA Global conference, futurist Faith Popcorn got even more declarative. She said that with arrival of the “hyper-connected” consumer “advertising is so over. If the consumer believes you’re paying for their time, they don’t really believe in it.”

Add to this scenario several years of shrinking advertising budgets, and it’s easy to see how some might gravitate to an “advertising is dead” mindset. After all, it’s easier and cheaper to plow your limited marketing dollars into social media and gaming the consumer review sites than trying to target a market whose media choices are increasingly fragmented.

My take: advertising will survive—but it’s morphing into something new.

Traditional advertising—and I think that category now has to include e-mail and Web banners—will stick around. After all, social media alone is not right for every business, every target market and every marketing situation. But there’s no doubt that the way we reach customers is continuing to change, as we recalibrate the best ways to reach customers in a personally relevant and timely manner.

A good communications program is still about engagement, our ability to attract new customers and nurture relationships with our current customers through a compelling and strategically sound message. And when it comes to achieving these aims, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. Especially with the ever-changing way customers digest their information.

A surprising recent study (albeit, by the US Postal Service) showed that direct mail was actually preferred over e-mail by the Gen X demographic. And social media burnout has been well-documented, with a groundswell of people choosing to shut down their Facebook and Twitter accounts—or at least interact with them a lot less frequently.

So in the future, I think that successful marketing campaigns will be as diverse as the audience you’re trying to reach. It’s as likely to include a personalized e-mail as a promo on Foursquare, a targeted mail piece as a video on YouTube. The key is in finding the right mix for your target market, and making sure that your communications are as compelling, timely and relevant as possible.

What do you think?

Suppose you had a business whose sales had dropped 13% over the past year, continuing a multi-year sales decline. You’d probably look for ways to run your business more efficiently by cutting expenses. You might even consider reducing your prices to attract more business.

Well if you’re the United States Postal Service (USPS), you have a different take on what to do about a double-digit decline in revenue: you decide to raise your rates to make up for lost income, in some cases dramatically.

According to BtoB Magazine, in early-July the USPS requested that standard-mail letter rates, the kind used most often for commercial direct mail campaigns, be increased 5%. The USPS also asked that standard-mail parcel rates, used to send small-size merchandise and product samples, be raised a whopping 23.3%.

Raising prices to make up for decreasing sales? Is that any way to run a business?

Mail volume is dwindling because consumers are increasingly using electronic communications as alternatives to postal deliveries. That’s an undeniable fact. The proof: from 2007 through 2009, the volume of mail handled by the USPS fell by 36 billion pieces, a 17% decline and the greatest drop in its history.

This year, the USPS is on track to lose a stunning $6.5 billion. Yet, instead of doing something to manage expenses, the Affordable Mail Alliance reports that in 2009 the USPS managed to reduce labor costs by a mere single percentage point, 1%.

I have long been a proponent of direct mail, believing it best to give consumers a choice of communications vehicles. We’ve also seen studies showing that most people still prefer snail mail over e-mail, viewing it as a welcome respite from their clogged inboxes. But this latest plea for another price increase begs the question: At what point does it become cost prohibitive to use a communications medium whose delivery costs can run up to 100 times more than that of its electronic competitors?

I hate to say it, but maybe it’s time to consider eliminating mail—and the USPS—from the marketing mix.

What do you think?

Tom Rapsas is a seasoned Creative Director and Direct / Loyalty Marketing guru. He is also a valued contributor to Loyalty Truth. You can follow him on Twitter: @TomRapsas

After spending the last few weeks thinking through reasonable responses to my new favorite question for 2010 “Do you think Social Media is here to stay?“, I’ve recently been re-directed to my “old” favorite question that I have been answering for 12 years “Do loyalty programs work?“

Without disappearing completely down that gopher-hole, I’ll just say that there is enough discomfort in using the “L” word that industry insiders are redirecting the conversation to new labels. Is it any wonder why Customer Engagement has been the buzzword of the year?

Lifecycle marketing in the credit card business has always hinged on the “Activation, Usage Retention” triad. In retail, there is a similar flow with “Awareness, Visit, Purchase, Return“.

I believe that within these lifecycle flows, Customer Engagement has always existed. Activation can be broken down into Awareness & Engagement leading to Activation. You get the idea.

So why is Customer Engagement being given so much attention these days? Maybe because marketers have always found it one of the toughest steps to effectively manage in the relationship value chain. And, maybe it is because in 2010 the job is increasingly difficult as consumer attention spans are shrinking each day.

Not too long ago, I went to see the end-times movie “2012″ and the challenge of customer engagement was made crystal clear. As the final scene faded out, the entire theater full of patrons jumped to their feet and headed to the exits. As I sat comfortably watching the credits scroll by, I noticed that I was literally one of three people still in my seat. I had noticed this behavior before, but finally connected some dots.

You see, consumer attention spans have been shrinking for several years and the pace of shrinkage shows no sign of slowing down. The question is: how do marketers hope to create and maintain “customer engagement” when “customers” (us) can barely pay attention long enough to change the channel?

With tongue only slightly in-cheek, I believe the slide in customer attention span all started with USA Today. The snippet-based paper lowered the bar for people to gather their news, requiring them only to read a paragraph or two and then turn the page. After a while, reading a news story in the New York Times seemed like sitting down to crack War and Peace.

The die was cast and a new standard was set for how consumers gather their news – short entertainment-driven sound bytes that could be absorbed while multi-tasking negated the requirement for thought or analysis. Now we have a “crawler” on everything from CNN to ESPN to summarize our news for us, and we are sharing our subjects of interest with friends through quick SMS messages and IM blasts. Even the outflow of natural disasters as recently occurred in Haiti are threatened by our short attention span.

Compress the communication further by limiting our messages to 140 characters on Twitter and it is clear that there is more emphasis on the announcement than the content inside. In the business world, we are increasingly asked to summarize key thoughts and initiatives into “one pagers”.  Weeks & months of work on strategic plans are being distilled into executive summaries that are shorter by the day. It almost seems as though even a brilliant business plan or strategy is doomed unless there is an effective elevator speech to go with it.

The trends we have seen in Loyalty Marketing include members who want to achieve award status quicker and redeem more often for smaller “attainable” rewards. Converting points for cash back certificates at the point of sale is high on the list for many program operators.

If you agree that attention spans are compressing daily and our own internal communications are being driven by 3 PowerPoint slides and a “one pager”, what tactics can we hope to successfully employ to engage our customers?

I think the answer is two-fold:

• First, we can go back to social media – as we might just have to meet people “where they are” rather than hoping to bring them into our web, our way.
• The second is to never forget that every house has a kitchen table or something akin to it. People still gather and enjoy each other’s company in informal settings. Putting a catalog or brochure on their kitchen table gives them something to talk about – YOU. Personalizing that catalog based on known behaviors makes it even more of a conversation piece, once opened.

Pairing these two unlikely partners – Social Media and Direct Mail – might just work. Give it a try.

After spending the last few weeks thinking through reasonable responses to my new favorite question for 2010 “Do you think Social Media is here to stay?“, I’ve recently been re-directed to my “old” favorite question that I have been answering for 12 years “Do loyalty programs work?“

Without disappearing completely down that gopher-hole, I’ll just say that there is enough discomfort in using the “L” word that industry insiders are redirecting the conversation to new labels. Is it any wonder why Customer Engagement has been the buzzword of the year?

Lifecycle marketing in the credit card business has always hinged on the “Activation, Usage Retention” triad. In retail, there is a similar flow with “Awareness, Visit, Purchase, Return“.

I believe that within these lifecycle flows, Customer Engagement has always existed. Activation can be broken down into Awareness & Engagement leading to Activation. You get the idea.

So why is Customer Engagement being given so much attention these days? Maybe because marketers have always found it one of the toughest steps to effectively manage in the relationship value chain. And, maybe it is because in 2010 the job is increasingly difficult as consumer attention spans are shrinking each day.

Not too long ago, I went to see the end-times movie “2012″ and the challenge of customer engagement was made crystal clear. As the final scene faded out, the entire theater full of patrons jumped to their feet and headed to the exits. As I sat comfortably watching the credits scroll by, I noticed that I was literally one of three people still in my seat. I had noticed this behavior before, but finally connected some dots.

You see, consumer attention spans have been shrinking for several years and the pace of shrinkage shows no sign of slowing down. The question is: how do marketers hope to create and maintain “customer engagement” when “customers” (us) can barely pay attention long enough to change the channel?

With tongue only slightly in-cheek, I believe the slide in customer attention span all started with USA Today. The snippet-based paper lowered the bar for people to gather their news, requiring them only to read a paragraph or two and then turn the page. After a while, reading a news story in the New York Times seemed like sitting down to crack War and Peace.

The die was cast and a new standard was set for how consumers gather their news – short entertainment-driven sound bytes that could be absorbed while multi-tasking negated the requirement for thought or analysis. Now we have a “crawler” on everything from CNN to ESPN to summarize our news for us, and we are sharing our subjects of interest with friends through quick SMS messages and IM blasts. Even the outflow of natural disasters as recently occurred in Haiti are threatened by our short attention span.

Compress the communication further by limiting our messages to 140 characters on Twitter and it is clear that there is more emphasis on the announcement than the content inside. In the business world, we are increasingly asked to summarize key thoughts and initiatives into “one pagers”.  Weeks & months of work on strategic plans are being distilled into executive summaries that are shorter by the day. It almost seems as though even a brilliant business plan or strategy is doomed unless there is an effective elevator speech to go with it.

The trends we have seen in Loyalty Marketing include members who want to achieve award status quicker and redeem more often for smaller “attainable” rewards. Converting points for cash back certificates at the point of sale is high on the list for many program operators.

If you agree that attention spans are compressing daily and our own internal communications are being driven by 3 PowerPoint slides and a “one pager”, what tactics can we hope to successfully employ to engage our customers?

I think the answer is two-fold:

• First, we can go back to social media – as we might just have to meet people “where they are” rather than hoping to bring them into our web, our way.
• The second is to never forget that every house has a kitchen table or something akin to it. People still gather and enjoy each other’s company in informal settings. Putting a catalog or brochure on their kitchen table gives them something to talk about – YOU. Personalizing that catalog based on known behaviors makes it even more of a conversation piece, once opened.

Pairing these two unlikely partners – Social Media and Direct Mail – might just work. Give it a try.

There is a growing debate concerning the social media space. While the cognoscenti are touting their use of Twitter, Digg, Friend Feed and other social media tools, there are strong voices of skepticism labeling those medium as unproven business tools at best, time-wasting black holes at worst. The schism could be no more than manifestation of a marketing generation gap. Still, when I hear more than one of my respected peers with 30 years in Direct Marketing raise the question, I have to pause and consider both sides of the story.

A blog post from Response Agency framed the debate: “… Some marketers seem compelled to jump on every new high tech toy, and they insist that you be so compelled as well. Your company, they say, must send text messages, must be on Facebook and LinkedIn, and now must be on Twitter……Fine, except I have yet to see evidence that any of these toys produce sales at all, much less in a cost-effective manner. Meanwhile, I see plenty of evidence that they consume valuable time — lots of it. Time that you could have spent working. Maybe even accomplishing something productive.”

My response was to comment “The opportunity to waste time in unprofitable pursuits is always present.  Since I approach these venues with my business hat on, I invest my time to build my network and to increase my visibility and personal brand. It is working……with Twitter I have encountered some strong people and valuable resources. Don’t give up on the digital just yet!”

My friend softened a bit in his reply: “If there is evidence that the social media are an effective business-building tool as measured at the cash register, I’m interested……Either way, I suspect you would agree with my two, earlier key objections: (1) That the social media are yet unproven as a selling tool; and (2) that there is great potential to waste time on them.”

If traditional Direct Marketers were to emulate Alan Greenspan, they would exclaim that the market regards the potential of Social Media with “Irrational Exuberance“.  Just as I was beginning to consider the naysayers with more sincerity, I sat in on a “Twebinar“today hosted by Chris Brogan (@chrisbrogan) and Awareness Networks (@bostonmike). The presentation can be found at the Awareness Inc. site and the results will blow you away.

Among many other examples, I learned that Marriott Hotels generated over $4 Million in room reservations via a link from Bill Marriott’s blog. Now that is called ROI in any language. The debate will continue for a while, but CMO’s are already considering Social Media as an increasingly valid element of their marketing mix. Be watchful, listen and learn. Everyone else is!

There is a growing debate concerning the social media space. While the cognoscenti are touting their use of Twitter, Digg, Friend Feed and other social media tools, there are strong voices of skepticism labeling those medium as unproven business tools at best, time-wasting black holes at worst. The schism could be no more than manifestation of a marketing generation gap. Still, when I hear more than one of my respected peers with 30 years in Direct Marketing raise the question, I have to pause and consider both sides of the story.

A blog post from Response Agency framed the debate: “… Some marketers seem compelled to jump on every new high tech toy, and they insist that you be so compelled as well. Your company, they say, must send text messages, must be on Facebook and LinkedIn, and now must be on Twitter……Fine, except I have yet to see evidence that any of these toys produce sales at all, much less in a cost-effective manner. Meanwhile, I see plenty of evidence that they consume valuable time — lots of it. Time that you could have spent working. Maybe even accomplishing something productive.”

My response was to comment “The opportunity to waste time in unprofitable pursuits is always present.  Since I approach these venues with my business hat on, I invest my time to build my network and to increase my visibility and personal brand. It is working……with Twitter I have encountered some strong people and valuable resources. Don’t give up on the digital just yet!”

My friend softened a bit in his reply: “If there is evidence that the social media are an effective business-building tool as measured at the cash register, I’m interested……Either way, I suspect you would agree with my two, earlier key objections: (1) That the social media are yet unproven as a selling tool; and (2) that there is great potential to waste time on them.”

If traditional Direct Marketers were to emulate Alan Greenspan, they would exclaim that the market regards the potential of Social Media with “Irrational Exuberance“.  Just as I was beginning to consider the naysayers with more sincerity, I sat in on a “Twebinar“today hosted by Chris Brogan (@chrisbrogan) and Awareness Networks (@bostonmike). The presentation can be found at the Awareness Inc. site and the results will blow you away.

Among many other examples, I learned that Marriott Hotels generated over $4 Million in room reservations via a link from Bill Marriott’s blog. Now that is called ROI in any language. The debate will continue for a while, but CMO’s are already considering Social Media as an increasingly valid element of their marketing mix. Be watchful, listen and learn. Everyone else is!